An Agent-Based Model to Project China’s Energy Consumption and Carbon Emission Peaks at Multiple Levels

To assess whether China’s emissions will peak around 2030, we forecast energy consumption and carbon emissions in China. We use an agent-based model driven by enterprises’ innovation. Results show some differences in both energy consumption peaks and carbon emission peaks when we compare trends at different levels. We find that carbon emissions and energy consumption will peak in 2027 and 2028, respectively. However, the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries will reach energy consumption in different years: 2023, 2029, and 2022, respectively, and reach carbon emission peaks in 2022, 2028, and 2022, respectively. At the sectoral level, we find a wider range of energy consumption peaks and carbon emission peaks. Peak energy consumption occurs between 2020 and 2034, and peak carbon emissions between 2020 and 2032. Commercial and catering businesses, utilities and resident services, and finance and insurance achieve peak energy consumption and carbon emissions earliest in 2020, while building materials and other non-metallic mineral products manufacturing and metal products manufacturing are the two latest sectors to reach peak energy consumption and emissions, in 2034 and 2032, respectively.